MOSCOW, Mar 1 (PRIME) -- Consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) forecasts sales of new cars in Russia to fall 2% to 1.65 million vehicles in 2019 under the baseline scenario, the company said in a research note late on Thursday.
Under the optimistic scenario, sales will rise 0.5% to 1.68 million cars.
The sales of cars made by national producers may amount to 363,000 this year under the baseline scenario, while the sales of foreign cars assembled in Russia may stand at 1.012 million and of imported cars at 271,000. Implementation of a baseline or an optimistic scenario will depend on the macroeconomic situation, PwC said.
Among the factors that may have a negative impact on the sales, the company lists a rise of VAT to 20% from 18%, possible volatility of the ruble and worsening of the macroeconomic situation if new sanctions are imposed, a higher scrappage fee, and reduction of state support to the sector. But the car industry may start growing if there are no external shocks, no devaluation of the ruble, and no new sanctions.
Further improvement of the car industry will depend on conditions of transition from industrial assembly to a new investment regime, and PwC expects the car market in Russia to rise by 7% per year on average until 2023.
The company also said that Russia’s sales of light commercial vehicles may grow by 1% to 114,000 in 2019, while the sales of trucks might increase by 4% to 86,000 and bus sales may contract by 9% to 11,800.
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